A massive asteroid that was earlier reported to collide with Earth in 2032 may not smash into our home planet after all. According to the latest reports, the asteroid named 2024 YR4 has a near chance of 4 per cent of impacting the Moon.
Observations conducted by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope give some new information about the asteroid’s trajectory. The new information has reportedly sparked the interests of scientists and astronomers, raising some questions about future lunar missions.
The asteroid dubbed ‘City killer’ was discovered in December 2024 and had initially stoked concern since it posed a 3.1 per cent chance of impacting Earth. This percentage was reportedly the highest risk ever recorded for an asteroid of its size. The YR4 measures between 53-67 metres in diametre, making it as big as a 15-storey building.
Reportedly, this massive asteroid triggered the first-ever notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) on January 29, this year. Over time, subsequent observations and calculations have significantly decreased the chance of impact to Earth to below 0.001 per cent, essentially eliminating any threat to Earth. In a report in the New Scientist, astronomer Andrew Rivkin said that now there is a 2 per cent chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032. In February, NASA had estimated a 1.7 per cent chance.
What will happen to the Moon?
The potential collision of YR4 with the Moon may lead to the formation of new meteoroids, as the collision may create a large crater on the surface with debris flying into space. Reportedly, the impact is believed to be 500 times more powerful than the impact caused after the Hiroshima bombing.
Scientists predict that the collision may lead to particle cloud formation from both the Moon and the asteroid and may endanger human space infrastructure and operations between the Earth-Moon system. It could also alter the lunar surface, and the ejected debris may likely pose risks to future lunar missions and existing equipment on the Moon’s surface. This phenomenon will also present a rare opportunity for scientists to witness a major lunar impact in real time from Earth.
Throughout history, the Moon has endured numerous impacts. It is believed that an asteroid of this size is estimated to only occur once in a thousand years, which makes it a rare event of greater scientific significance.
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Meanwhile, there have been numerous international efforts to monitor the 2024 YR4 asteroid ever since its discovery. These efforts are led by researchers from the University of Helsinki who are using the 2.5-metre Nordic Optical Telescope in La Palma which provides the asteroid’s precise location, motion, rotation, size, and shape. The James Webb Space Telescope will reportedly run a critical observation in May 2025 before the asteroid vanishes into the outer solar system for several years. The sustained monitoring efforts are carried out in order to refine its trajectory predictions and impact possibilities.
In February, it was reported that the chances of YR4 impacting the Earth have shot up. The odds had reportedly increased to 1 in 43. At the time, the Y24 topped the risk list of the Centre for Near Earth Object Studies.
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