Why ‘The Crow’ Was A Textbook Blockbuster Flop

“I thought the remake was a cynical cash-grab. Not much cash to grab it seems.” Those are the words of director Alex Proyas writing on Facebook in response to the opening weekend box office for Lionsgate’s 2024 remake of The Crow.

Proyas directed the original 1994 cult classic, which starred Brandon Lee and became a hit even after the actor’s untimely passing on the set of the dark and gritty comic book adaptation. Whether or not Proyas’ jab was in poor taste is up for debate, but one thing is undoubtedly true: There was not much cash to grab.

Directed by Rupert Sanders, last year’s The Crow opened to just $4.6 million on its opening weekend, barely cracking the Top 10 at the U.S. box office. Less than a month later, it was out of theaters entirely, having grossed a grand total of $24 million worldwide against a reported $50 million budget. By anyone’s definition, it was a flop.

But why? What exactly turns a would-be blockbuster into a flop? And who makes that call?

“A hit in financial terms is not always a hit in audience terms.”

“Sometimes, there is the financial version of missing expectations and then there is the court of public opinion,” Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics at Fandango, tells Inverse. Robbins, who is also the founder and owner of Box Office Theory, which specializes in forecasting and analysis, adds: “A hit in financial terms is not always a hit in audience terms.”

A movie can open big but then fall off very quickly, often due to lackluster reception. Think Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which posted a record opening for the Ant-Man franchise but then fell off a cliff in its second weekend and never fully recovered. Unfortunately for Lionsgate and The Crow, it opened poorly and continued to sink from there. The Crow offers us a case of the most clear-cut flops in recent years. What went wrong with this remake reveals a lot about Hollywood financiers, the fickle needs of moviegoers, and why movie-making is such a big risk, no matter how beloved or large the franchise.

Who Is This Movie For?

In the case of The Crow, the original is indeed a beloved movie, but its sequels suffered greatly from the law of diminishing returns. This remake was caught in development hell for the better part of two decades, dating back to at least 2008. At one point, Aquaman star Jason Momoa was to play the title role in a version directed by Corin Hardy (The Nun). The plug was pulled in 2018 just days ahead of production. Perhaps that should have been taken as a sign to leave well enough alone.

The remake started coming together at a time when comic book movies were hotter than they’d ever been in Hollywood. 2008 was the year that Iron Man launched the MCU and when Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight became a $1 billion sensation. For a time, it made sense. The movie business is obsessed with pre-existing intellectual property (IP), and through its various iterations, the powers that be wouldn’t let this one go. Unfortunately, by the time it finally arrived, with It star Bill Skarsgård in the lead role, it seems the filmmakers missed the mark when it came to one very crucial question:

“Who is the remake really made for?” Robbins muses in considering a movie’s box office prospects. “What justifies a certain budget on a film like that? The one way to look at it is, sure, we’re revisiting an IP and maybe trying to re-introduce it to a new audience while also bringing back the fans, but that is always easier said than done.”

The Cold Hard Math of Box Office Flops

Generally speaking, theaters keep around half of the money made from the box office. Also, when a movie’s budget is reported, that does not account for marketing expenses. As a rule of thumb for a blockbuster, one would double the budget to account for marketing. In the case of The Crow, a $50 million budget plus $50 million in marketing and other expenses would equate to a $100 million total investment, meaning the movie needed to make somewhere close to $200 million globally to break even. (A.Frame once did a very good breakdown of how this all works, using Skyfall as an example.)

“That’s always the hardest calculus in this marriage of art and business,” Robbins says. “Whether it’s a sequel, prequel, reboot, or remake, there’s always going to be a threshold that the studio or filmmakers have to consider. Especially if it’s a remake or retelling of a beloved story. Even if it’s a niche type of cult classic, such as The Crow.”

The box office isn’t the only measure of a movie’s financial success, however. Movies make money in all sorts of ways, particularly blockbusters, from merchandise to streaming to Blu-ray and DVD sales. So a movie can still break even down the line even if it doesn’t make all of its money back in theaters. That is, if it retains post-theatrical value.

“In the postpandemic world of streaming, I think it opens up the debate of what a successful theatrical run is.”

The Crow, however, was saddled with terrible reviews, leading to a lack of buzz and poor word-of-mouth from audiences. “That’s always the last variable,” Robbins says of the critical response to a film. Something like The Fall Guy, which failed to live up to commercial expectations in theaters, was able to find an audience on streaming thanks to solid buzz. “It can be months, maybe even sometimes years before we know what was the cultural impact of a movie,” Robbins says. Lionsgate’s failed reboot received no such consolation prize.

“In the postpandemic world of streaming, I think it opens up the debate of what a successful theatrical run is,” Robbins says. A number of factors have shifted in the modern landscape, such as shorter, exclusive theatrical windows for most releases. “Movies are increasingly front-loaded at the box office,” Robbins points out while also noting the advent of premium video on demand (PVOD), which exploded during the pandemic.

The Art & Science of Divining a Flop

There are no set-in-stone rules that guarantee a movie will flop, but there are common denominators that The Crow nicely lines up. Studios often over-estimate a given IP. Sure, James O’Barr’s comic has a dedicated following, as does the original film. But does that lead to others?

Budgets are often an issue, though this might not have been such a problem for The Crow, as $50 million is, admittedly, on the low side by blockbuster standards, which speaks volumes about just how badly this particular movie performed.

And then there’s the marketing. The Crow’s marketing budget wasn’t disclosed, but the efforts weren’t remotely effective. Trying to frame it as “Goth John Wick” didn’t resonate with the intended audience. Relying on nostalgia without anything meaningful to anchor it to is a fool’s errand. (See Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, which showcased imagery that was relevant to the audiences for a cult hit with a similar delay.)

“It’s an imperfect science.”

Maybe the studios knew, as they were nearing the time of release, that they had a flop on their hands. “I think there are always telltale signs,” Robbins says. “It’s an imperfect science. I think some of those red flags can be in the marketing. In a world where audiences are very selective about what they go to see, it doesn’t matter how much hype is built into that marketing engine.”

In essence, one thing is true at the end of the day: Hollywood can’t force would-be audiences to care about a movie. The Crow is, in many ways, the perfect example of how to earn flop status, which nobody in the movie business wants to do.