Investors are heading into 2025 in an optimistic mood, believing that with the economy on a firm footing and the White House in their corner, the stock market will continue to climb.
That wasn’t the case at the start of the year, when even the most bullish analysts underestimated the strength of the market. Even after slipping for the final four trading days of the year, down 0.4 percent on Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 23.3 percent this year, roughly matching its gain in 2023. It’s the first time the benchmark index has risen more than 20 percent in consecutive years since 1998.
Can the rally continue? Wall Street thinks so.
On average, analysts are forecasting that the S&P 500 will rise around 10 percent in 2025. That includes analysts at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, who until recently were bracing for a downturn. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at the brokerage firm Oppenheimer, heads into the new year as the most bullish on Wall Street, anticipating a 2025 gain of roughly 20 percent.
After a spike in inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise interest rates in 2022, stocks tumbled as many on Wall Street anticipated a recession. But the downturn never materialized: Inflation gradually cooled, and the Fed began cutting rates this year, further supporting the economy. While the lingering impact of higher prices continues to strain consumer budgets, it has yet to drag down the economy — or the markets.
“This time last year there was so much trepidation and concern over the economy, but in fact it has been incredibly resilient,” said Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Bank.
In 2024, roughly $500 billion flowed into funds that buy U.S. stocks. More than half of that came in the fourth quarter, after the Fed had begun to cut interest rates, with the two biggest weeks coming after Election Day in November and the most recent Fed rate cut in December.
“Markets just kept climbing the wall of worry,” Mr. McKnight said.
Stock indexes continue to be buoyed by multinational tech giants like Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, with investor exuberance for artificial intelligence pushing up prices of these already richly valued stocks, which have a big influence on the market because of their size. Broadcom, a chip maker, in December became the latest company to achieve a trillion-dollar valuation.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained nearly 30 percent over the past 12 months, greatly outpacing indexes like the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies more linked to the ebb and flow of the domestic economy. The Russell index closed out 2024 about 10 percent higher than where it started the year.
Even with the economy in solid shape, analysts’ bullish forecasts are being made against an uncertain backdrop. Some fear the economy could yet falter, with unemployment, credit card delinquencies, corporate debt defaults and bankruptcies creeping up. Other market watchers counter that much will depend on the policies pursued by the incoming administration when Donald J. Trump takes over next month.
Proposals to lower corporate taxes and ease regulation are seen by many investors as easy to put in place and broadly positive for company profits and the stock market. But hefty tariffs and widespread deportations risk reigniting inflation, which could stall interest rate cuts and upset the market rally. For now, investors and analysts appear willing to wait for more details from the Trump administration.
When Fed officials met in December, they opted to cut interest rates to address the economy as it was, not as it could take shape when Mr. Trump moves back into the White House. Nonetheless, one of the central bank’s governors broke from the consensus, voting against lowering rates on fears of inflation accelerating again next year.
Torsten Slok, an economist at the investment manager Apollo, said that with stock prices close to record highs, investors risk becoming complacent. Inflation has not fully returned to the Fed’s target of 2 percent, and potential policies on imposing tariffs and restricting immigration are “increasing the risk of a resurgence.”
Should inflation accelerate, the likelihood of rate cuts in 2025 year would erode, removing some support for the stock market. Some believe that the market reaction to White House policy proposals could serve as a check on Mr. Trump’s most aggressive instincts.
“I don’t think tariffs will be as severe,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities. “The bark will be worse than the bite.”
That said, after such a long rally the recent burst of optimism about the coming year leaves little margin for error, said Mr. McKnight of Regions Bank.
“There is not a whole lot of wiggle room,” he said.
0
0
Average Rating